Daily News Brief

June 1, 2011
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Violence Rages on in Yemen
- Syrian Opposition Rejects Amnesty
- KSM Charged at Guantanamo
- Mladic Arrives in The Hague


Top of the Agenda: Violence Rages on in Yemen

Heavy fighting continued in the capital of Sanaa (NYT) this morning as regime forces under President Ali Abdullah Saleh clashed with the tribal family of Hamid al-Ahmar for control of strategic positions in the city, including the Interior Ministry and state-run media. Unconfirmed reports have put the death toll from the renewed violence at well above thirty people over the last two days. The country is facing increasing unrest in several areas after Saleh refused to step down for a third time, and analysts fear the continued bloodshed could drag Yemen into civil war. The U.S. State Department called for Saleh to leave office (BBC), urging the embattled president "to move Yemen forward."

Government security forces are also reported to have killed two more activists in the city of Taiz, adding to over fifty dead in recent days following attempts by the military to quell protests (al-Jazeera). The violence in Sanaa and Taiz comes after the deaths of at least thirty in government air raids in the southern city of Zinjibar, which is now reported to be under the control of fighters linked to al-Qaeda. Analysts claim Yemen is on the brink of financial collapse, with about a third of its 23 million people facing chronic hunger. Additional fears stem from Yemen's proximity to a vital shipping lane (Reuters) that carries about three million barrels of oil a day.

Analysis:

In this op-ed for the New York Times, Timur Kuran discusses the weak foundations of Arab democracy and the lack of participation of private civic organizations in the grassroots movement.

In Foreign Policy, Nathan Brown writes that Western leaders must stop ignoring the flaws of repressive Arab regimes that they deem indispensible and enact policies that reflect the needs of Arab societies, not Arab rulers.

In Foreign Affairs, Daniel Byman writes that al-Qaeda will have a tough time regrouping after this year's blows: The Arab revolutions discredited al Qaeda's violent jihadist message, then the raid on bin Laden's Abbottabad compound killed the messenger.


MIDDLE EAST: Syrian Opposition Rejects Amnesty

Syrian opposition members dismissed a token offer of amnesty (al-Jazeera) by President Bashar al-Assad, an attempt to contain a crisis that threatens the legitimacy of his leadership. Exiled opposition leaders are meeting in the Turkish city of Antalya to forge plans for a new democratic government.

Following the G8's tough stand on political repression, the weekend saw increased violence in Libya, Syria, and Yemen, along with signals of regime weakening. Some experts say the United States should take a tougher line with Libya and Syria.


PACIFIC RIM: IAEA Says Japan Underestimated Tsunami

A preliminary report released by nuclear experts at the IAEA concluded that Japan did not properly protect its nuclear power plants from tsunami threats prior to the March 11 disaster that led to a meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant (LATimes).

China: Manufacturing in China decreased to its slowest rate in ten months in May. Although the numbers suggest production is still growing, they align with several measures by Beijing aimed at cooling the economy and containing soaring consumer prices (AFP).


SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Militants Strike at Pakistan Border

Hundreds of unidentified militants crossed the border from Afghanistan to launch an assault on an outpost in Pakistan's northwestern region of Dir, killing at least seven. The United States has called on the Pakistani army to step up the fight against militants in border sanctuaries (Reuters).

Pakistan: U.S. officials condemned the murder of Syed Saleem Shahzad, a Pakistani reporter who allegedly reported threats from Pakistani intelligence officers over his coverage of supposed links between the military and Islamic militants (FT).

Pakistan's stability is of great consequence to regional and international security. Examine the roots of its challenges, what it means for the region and the world, and explore some plausible futures for the country in CFR's Crisis Guide: Pakistan.


AFRICA: Sudan Calls for African Peacekeepers

The Khartoum government called for the replacement of UN peacekeepers in the disputed region of Abyei (Bloomberg) with those that are of "an African nature," along with a rotating administration that would include troops from the north and south.

Renewed hostilities between North and South Sudan might be temporarily settled by an agreement hammered out by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, but the Obama administration should encourage China to play a bigger role in settling a conflict that threatens renewed civil war, says CFR's John Campbell.


AMERICAS: KSM Charged at Guantanamo

Military prosecutors re-filed terrorism and murder charges against Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (NYT) and four other September 11 conspirators, using a revamped trial process at Guantánamo Bay. Government prosecutors recommended the trial be a capital case, which could entail the death penalty.

President Obama vowed in January 2009 to close the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay. Two years later, the White House continues to face challenges to that promise, leaving critics to suggest the facility will remain open for the foreseeable future.


EUROPE: Mladic Arrives in The Hague

Serbia extradited Radko Mladic (AP) to the UN war crimes tribunal at The Hague, where he will stand trial for genocide, sixteen years after he was charged for the killing of eight thousand Muslims in Srebrenica. He is expected to receive a preliminary hearing within days.

Germany: Researchers in Germany are trying to identify the source of a deadly E. coli outbreak (BBC) after Spanish cucumbers were found not to have the lethal strain. Four hundred and seventy people--mostly in north Germany--have the most severe and potentially fatal symptoms. Fifteen people in the country have died from the bacteria.